Today after watching my daily doze of baseball I realize that I want to share a new wisdom, that I discover and that I see that has great Value for us the true sports fans,,,,
Traditionally, finding value through pitching matchups and home underdogs has been the key to winning with Major League Baseball. So called wiseguys have consistently beaten the books for more money in baseball than any other sport
Without the standard point spread that accompanies basketball and / or football, the devoted baseball handicapper often times much simply pick the games victor. In general, this allows for fewer bad beats or backdoor covers.
Most sites offer two options when playing a given team to win. Those options are the money line and the run line (-1.5 runs). In my mind this always made it difficult to bet a favorite. I either had to lay a big number betting the favorite to simply win or risk a one run victory to get any value.
I want to bring your attention, however, to a third option that has been offered in some books which I will let you know soon!!! . So we can all enjoy the benefits that this brings for us the Players.
But back to the third option and betting favorites.
This third option I'm referring to is very simple. If you play at X Site, then its been staring you in the face every time you make a wager. When you want to play a favorite, you simply buy half a run back from the 1.5 run spread. In essence, this approach allows you to merge the two lines and find a nice value-laden number in between the two.
Let's say the Yankees are -175 to win outright and paying +125 to cover 1.5 runs at home against the Orioles. You love the pitching match up and recent trends and just cant? envision New York losing this one. Just as you’re ready to lay that juice and play it safe, that +125 run line is calling your name.
Alas, I found a way to get the best of both worlds. Instead of going for the "underdog" run line, we buy a half a run at X Site and get the Yankees -1 at -118. If the Bronx Bombers do win on 1, then we simply push with our wager. If the Yankees lose and the play of the day fall flat, then we didn’t have to lay 1.75 to 1 only to see our starting pitcher get roughed up in the first three innings.
Admittedly, this is nothing revolutionary. But when laying the juice with favorites (which in my opinion is an inevitable part of betting baseball) I think this option offers a nice middle ground and may save you some of those nasty headaches when your home favorite wins by 1 lonely run.
So stay tuned for more Wisdom ahead !!!