Friday, September 18, 2015

College Football Betting – Week 3 Betting Lines

A couple of ranked teams face tough road tests on Thursday and Friday before the big Saturday College Football slate. #11 Clemson is a six-point favorite at Louisville while #9 Florida State is a 7.5-point road favorite at Boston College. Laying the points with both favorites looks appealing, with Louisville already 0-2 this year while BC has yet to face an FBS foe and should be unprepared for this level of competition.

The real fun happens on Saturday with a number of marquee matchups. The SEC took a big hit last weekend with three teams dropping out of the Top 25 and another team, Auburn, needing overtime to get past FCS Jacksonville State at home.

Auburn dropped all the way down to #18 in the AP Poll and has an incredible hard game this Saturday as they travel to #13 LSU. Despite little separation in the polls, the online sportsbook (()) list LSU as a sizeable 6.5-point home favorite. Auburn was a similarly-priced 6.5-point home favorite last year in this meeting, and crushed LSU by a blowout 41-7 winning margin.

Another big SEC matchup this week according to most college football betting website, pits second-ranked Alabama at home against #15 Mississippi. This is a big revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, as Ole’ Miss was the only team to beat Alabama in the regular season last year. Bama is a seven-point home choice with the added benefit of playing this game at night, which usually results in an even bigger home crowd advantage.

While those ranked teams face stiff competition, other highly-ranked teams have it pretty easy this week. In the Big Ten, #1 Ohio State and #24 Wisconsin are both favored by 34.5 points. Michigan State moved up to #4 in the rankings ((and even received two first place votes) after a big win vs. Oregon last Saturday night, and are 26.5-point favorites against triple-option Air Force.

As big as those CFB betting lines are, that’s not even close to the Oregon Ducks, who are a massive 45.5-point favorite against Georgia State. The next biggest line has TCU favored by 37.5 points against SMU, and they may cover that number as they look to beat the 35-point winning margin Baylor laid on the Mustangs two weeks ago.

Perhaps the most intriguing game of the weekend sees #14 Georgia Tech as a three-point road favorite at South Bend against the #8-ranked Fighting Irish. Notre Dame lost their starting quarterback for the seasonlast week, and if that wasn’t troubling enough they face what is widely considered as the best triple-option offense in all of college football.
We’ll be back next week to look at the high profile games for Week 4 of the College Football season.

Friday, August 14, 2015

PGA Championship Betting Preview

The question of IF Rory McIlroy has been answered – he has declared himself fit to defend his title after being out for more than a month with an ankle injury. Now the question centers on how effective he will be with that time off.
If you believe McIlroy, he believes his ankle is better than ever and this onlinesportsbook has responded by having him as the second choice to win it all at +650.

The favorite remains Jordan Spieth at +375, who has already won two majors this year. Dustin Johnson and Jason Day at +800, and Bubba Watson, who was an early 25:1 longshot, is all the way up to +925.

Phil Mickelson finished second last year, and like Watson was an early 25:1 longshot to win. His recent poor play has actually dropped his odds, and he is currently a big +3250 underdog to win it all.
This tournament really hinges on the top two players, however, and all eyes will be on McIlroy early to see how the injury and time off has, if at all, hurt his swing. Not only did he win this tournament last year, but he also won in 2012. Spieth obviously has the hot hand and has had a tremendous overall season where it seems foolish to bet against him at this point.

The last time the PGA Championship was held here in Whistling Straits, Marin Kaymer was the winner, with Bubba Watson coming in second (thus the surge on PGA bettors backing him). Kaymer is listed at 30:1, almost entirely because of his performance here in 2010.

There are different strategies to betting on golf, and while we normally employ the strategy of backing a few longshots and hoping for a big payoff, the recent surge of Bubba Watson’s odds has us staying away from that theory here. Spieth and McIlroy are deservingly the heavy favorites and more likely than not, one of those two players will emerge victorious.

Instead of backing a longshot, we would recommend playing some PGA matchup wagers. The online sportsbooks offer moneyline odds for two golfers against each other, regardless of where they finish overall. This is where we will look to back Bubba Watson, staying away from the bad line value in backing him to win it all.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Tour de France Betting Update

After Saturday’s Stage 14 run, we are a little bit past the halfway mark of the 2015 Tour de France, with the favorite Chris Froome making good on the online sportsbook choice to have him as 2:1 favorite at the start.

Froome is starting to build his lead, and with two more hilly stages prior to Tuesday’s off day, then the grueling mountain stages coming up next, it looks like Froome is well on his way to winning it all.

It hasn’t been easy for the leader, who has been dealing with public perception problems related to doping. Apparently, after the mess Lance Armstrong left behind, everyone is guilty of doping until proven innocent.

Froome agreed to undergo independent testing after the Tour de France is completed, but that wasn’t enough for one fan who threw a cup of urine at him Saturday.

Despite the distractions, Froome now leads the pack by 3 minutes and 10 seconds, but perhaps more important in terms of betting is the fact that Tejay van Garderen struggled late and fell out of second place.

Van Garderen was a 33:1 longshot at prior to Day 1 – the best odds of any American rider. There are two long stages Sunday and Monday before the rest day – covering 183 km and 201 km. Showing signs of fatigue this early is not a good sign for the American.

The new second-place rider is Nairo Quintana – one of the top four favorites. Not sure if he will be able to catch up to Froome, but we’ll likely get a good idea of those chances during the mountain stages in the middle of next week.

Quintana is currently listed at a 13:2 payout if he can overtake Froome, but the leader is a comfortable favorite at the online sportsbooks, with a cycling bettor needing to lay $1,000 in order to show a $100 profit.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Serena Williams Wins Her 6th Wimbledon Title

Congratulations to Serena Williams who won the 2015 Wimbledon Championship when she defeated Garbine Muguruza 6-4, 6-4 giving me a nice little chunk of change from betting on her!

Thank you Ms. Williams!

This makes her 6th Wimbledon Titles under her belt for a total of 4 Grand Slam wins a feat that only a select few can claim to have made.

Looking back at her tennis career, Serena Williams is the first woman to win the French Open and Wimbledon back to back since 2002. Looking forward to a prop bet I had put on her at the beginning of the year, if she successfully defends her US Open title next month, she will become the first woman since Steffi Graf in 1988 to win a calendar Grand Slam and I will be jumping up and down when I collect my winning!


Friday, June 26, 2015

Choosing the Right Sportsbook

Many sports betting fans ask how I choose the right sportsbook for myself.

Many times the answer can come from those companies that offer betting services online, as that’s how they earn their living. They explain their benefits in writing online, but then many are not interested in how they earn their living, but rather would like to know the important things in choosing the right sportsbook.

Of course, most of that is just propaganda to get them to bet on sports with them and may not always create the best results. This is why they are many websites that describe themselves as being a Sportsbook Reviews website or a gambling watchdog website.

Unfortunately, many of these websites will take advertising money from a sportsbook or be part of a sportsbook affiliate program which in itself creates a conflict of interest as how can they be impartial if they are getting paid to do this.

So How do You Choose the Right Sportsbook

The answer is actually very easy and complicated as it all depends on your style of laying.  To see if a sportsbook is safe enough and private enough to play at, I like to use a combination of research

First, I check out about 10 sports betting review websites to determine the rating they have.  If they have an average rating or higher, for me that is good enough as long as I do not invest too much money in it.

Second, I check out sports betting forums because sports bettors are fast to point out their grief on a forum if they had an issue with a sportsbook.  So based on these two things I know whether I have enough confidence in a new bookmaker to send money to them.

Does the Sportsbook Fit my Style of Play?

First let’s talk about online or offline. The online sportsbook sites have a lower margin of profit compared to the bookies of the bricks and mortar establishments. A local book may offer a line on a game at a -140 odds whereas the online book may have the same game at -110, so there you would have to make a choice.

Secondly the online books have an advantage in that you don’t have to go anywhere’s to place a bet and no going to a bookies office to bet. Everything is done via the computer or a mobile device, and even as you watch a game on television or on your mobile,as most offer live betting if you care to bet that way.

Where you live can significantly reduce your available choices. That’s due to fairly recent United States Legislation, whereby U.S. Citizens are told it’s illegal to bet online in the USA. Many people interpret the law differently, but regardless if you’re a United States Citizen you should carefully consider that. Thus one should check the government regulations of the country in which they live. However, many U.S. Citizens bet online but they deviate from the system for which they make deposits and payouts.

The betting limits are another consideration as some books are for only the recreational bettors,which indicates they are not interested in the big players, so they place limits pertaining to the maximum winning , so depending on how much one plans to bet, it’s important to check this out when you read the rules and limits online.

Also one needs to consider the offered betting lines and their profit margins, which in common terms is the vig, or what the book will charge on each bet you make, so here you can shop for the best lines and the lowest vig’s offered.  There are some books that offer great lines and odds on special events.
Another important point is to attempt to find out what kind of historic record the sportsbook has for payouts, as some books are cited for slow payouts, and some have been accused of not paying at all. Normally that information is available online with sites that review sportsbooks or forums.

It’s also wise to check on the Banking options as that can make your life in the betting World somewhat easier, especially when depositing or requesting payouts for you winnings. In the case the sportsbook only offers one system for banking, like bank wires,you and most others would seek another sportsbook.

Last but not least, if you Bet on Sports at an Online sportsbook are the bonuses and promotions the sportsbook your considering adversely affect their offers, and are there strings attached pertaining to play through and payouts.

If all the above meet your satisfaction, check this out. Some sportsbook offer no promotions, but simply great betting odds for their clients. If 2 of the books offer the same odds but 1 offers special promotions with no strings attach, then go for it. Just make sure you weigh all the benefits, and good luck gambling