How to Bet Correlated Parlays

For those that like to bet on sports, correlated parlays are the ideal betting concept. This is because they typically have a positive long-term outlook. Therefore, if you consistently placed these bets, you would guarantee a profit. Thus, this sports betting tutorial will teach you How to Bet Correlated Parlays to increase your betting profits.

According to gambling experts, correlated parlays are like a machine that always prints money. However, finding and betting on these parlays is very challenging. Usually, anything that seems too good to be true is. This is because sportsbooks are a lot smarter these days and always look for anything that will decrease their profits. It’s the evolution of sports betting.

Let's first define what we're talking about. What is a correlated parlay and how do we bet correlated parlays?

What Is a Correlated Parlay?

As a sports bettor, we should understand that a parlay is a group of bets wagered as a single bet. Each of the individual bets must win in order for the parlay to win.

The idea behind a correlated parlay is to group bets that go together. If one of the things happens, then the other is likely to occur. An example better explains this concept.

Take an NBA basketball game, for example. Let’s say you have Celtics favored over the hawks. The Celtics are a 15-point favorite. The game total is set at 40. This doesn’t happen often, which is one reason why basketball betting is so hard.

If you are betting on the Celtics to cover at a bookie pay per head sportsbook, it would make sense that the game total goes Over. There is a better than average chance if Hawks covers the pointspread they are going to score a bunch of points in the process.

A smart bettor could parlay the two bets - Celtics -15, Over 40 - and win a higher profit than if the two were wagered separately. That’s how you bet correlated parlays.

Bet Correlated Parlays for Long-Term Profits

To bet correlated parlays and ensure long-term profits, you have to understand some basic math. Otherwise, there is a good chance that you will lose your wager. Thus, it is understandable as to why bookies would have parlays available in their basic sportsbook software.

There are four possible outcomes when you wager on a two-event parlay.

·         Win both

·         Lose first, Win second

·         Lose second, Win first

·         Lose both

The probability of winning the parlay is 25 percent (1 in 4). If the sports betting odds on either side of a point spread bet are set properly, there should be an even chance of a win or loss. That means each outcome here has a 25 percent probability.

Accordingly, to show a profit here you would need to get odds of +300 (3/1) or better to break even. Two-team parlays usually payout at +260 (2.6/1) and are usually not a great bet because you lose money in the long-term.

The change in odds with Correlated Parlays

However, when you bet correlated parlays, the percentages change. Let’s say in our Celtics versus Hawks example there is still an even chance of ending up on either side of the spread. However, if the favorite covers, the total is much more likely to go Over.

The Celtics would have to cover by 16 points. There aren’t that many scores where Celtics win by 16 and the total goes Under. As a result, we might find that there is an 80 percent chance the game total goes Over. Make sure you have a top-tier sportsbook to find the best lines.

Overall, this would mean that there is a 40 percent chance that the game will go Over and the favorite will cover. That means that 40 percent of the time you parlay the favorite and the over you are going to win.

If you made a $100 parlay bet 10 times, you would expect to win four of them. The total profit on those wins would be $1040 ($260 x 4). The six losses would cost you a total of $600. That means your profit would be $440.